The frontier liberates us from the zero-sum world
We are explorers at our best. We come alive at the frontier. Humanity has many important frontiers, but exploring the vast space is somehow different. The final frontier. We can imagine a future when we live among the stars - A great adventure, like mapping the unexplored parts of the earth once was.
Technology helps us make most of our resources on earth, but we can’t make more land. Real estate is the ultimate zero-sum competition and a proxy for our idea of freedom. Throughout history, it has invoked more violence than any other resource. Space allows us to rethink our lives without the legacy we have built over centuries here on Earth. It offers the same freedom, economic potential, and excitement that once came with exploring new continents. The United States is a success story only because some 250 years ago, we were able to rethink what kind of society we wanted to live in.
Despite the vast economic potential, the biggest opportunity is the change in perspective. To this day, most of our wars are zero-sum territorial battles. Could exploring a new world free us from endless violence and fighting over limited resources? The frontier contains the idea that the future is different and better than the present, liberating us from a zero-sum world. We can’t desire what our neighbor has when we’re busy creating something new and different from everything that came before. Working at the frontier is an embodiment of what it means to have a future.
SpaceX is the modern-day railroad company
The first settlers in the US, such as the Pilgrims who arrived on the Mayflower in 1620, primarily sought religious freedom rather than economic gain. Sailing across the Atlantic was slow, dangerous, and relatively expensive. A trip to Mars is likely all those things when that becomes available. One way trip to Mars takes 4-10 months, and launch windows to Mars only open every 2 years. Mars could offer similar freedom for those who seek it, but that’s not all SpaceX will do for us.
In 1869, the American transcontinental railroad opened the way for the settlement of the West, provided new economic opportunities, and enabled the development of new towns and communities. The infrastructure that railroads created offered almost anyone who made the trip a tangible opportunity for a better future. Eventually, millions of individuals made the journey.
The transcontinental railroad is one of the greatest technological achievements of the 19th century. The railroad connected eastern states to western states. It reduced travel time from 6 months to 6 days. SpaceX is building a logistical infrastructure comparable to the late 19th-century United States transcontinental railroads. Cheap, safe, and frequent transport, first to Low Earth Orbit and then across the solar system. It will be one of the greatest technological achievements of this century and will change life beyond recognition. New technology will unlock the future just as railroads once did.
Once transportation is cheap enough, frequent enough, and reliable enough, we’ll have an incentive to further develop new technologies to make life and commerce viable in space, which will give the first space settlers profitable businesses to start and operate. Space will be a new frontier with an opportunity for unprecedented freedom and prosperity.
Profit motives and cost curves
What is currently holding us back is the cost of accessing space on the one hand and the economic value we can create to cover the cost of operating in space on the other. SpaceX has already pushed down the cost of access, but Starship will change space more than we can imagine.
Before SpaceX's reusable rockets, the cost to launch payloads could reach $10,000 to $20,000 per kilogram or more. Today, with reusable Falcon Heavy rockets, the cost stands at sub-two thousand dollars per kg. The goal for Starship is to push down the marginal cost of launch to as low as $10/kg. That’s an improvement of over two orders of magnitude from what we have today. It will be a massive unlock for what’s possible and will, in one sweep, allow us to start colonizing space. Colonizing Mars is an ambitious vision Elon Musk has set for us, but there’s a lot more we can do in space when the launch cost to orbit hits $10/kg.
Once the tracks are laid, the building starts
Once we see a prosperous future is within everyone’s reach, it will give us a new shared direction to work towards.
Exploring the frontier is hard but inspiring. It forces us to invest in bold new technologies, and there’s work for everyone who can contribute. Companies have the incentive to train people with needed skills. After we have laid the tracks, we need to create a habitable environment for ourselves. It will be a lot of work, just as it was in the late 19th century United States.
The future in space is already being built. Weapon systems are the normal first entrants as they can finance much of the R&D that’s needed. Even Starship might play a dual-use role as a weapon. Satellites are another dual-use technology. By now, we’re used to seeing satellite businesses spearheaded by SpaceX’s own Starlink. Recently, Starlink played a role during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In-space manufacturing companies starting to emerge. Varda recently launched its product, and others are likely to follow. The most ambitious companies are building space stations for human use. Once the International Space Station reaches the end of its life, sometime after 2028, Axiom will be ready to take its place as a commercial space station. These and other pioneers are building the early infrastructure for our expansion into space.
The Starship-enabled 200-fold decrease in the cost of access to space means a whole new future is about to open up. Like any frontier, it points us to work on something new and important instead of fighting over a static zero-sum world.